Guest Authors: Yossi Quint and Blake Byrne
Over the past half century, the U.S. went from being by far the biggest meat producer in the world to trailing China as a distant second. Today, the protein industry is confronted with a seismic innovation–the rise of alternative protein–that could again radically alter the world’s protein landscape. The alternative protein industry is growing quickly and has the potential to be the protein of the future. In China, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs recently included Cultivated meats and other alternative proteins like plant-based eggs as part of its 5-year blueprint for food security. Unfortunately, in the U.S., companies and government agencies are largely ignoring this revolutionary moment and are ceding an opportunity to lead the alternative protein industry to other countries. This strategy, or lack thereof, is antithetical to both our economic and security interests.
In 1961, the U.S. produced over 6x as much meat as China. Today, China produces almost 2x as much meat as the U.S. The gap between the two countries increases to 3x if you include seafood (170 million tons vs. 52 million tons). And the gap is only widening. A USDA report recently led with the headline “China Meat Supply Continues to Grow.” And the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that 8% of all farmworker jobs (farm, ranch, and aquacultural animals) will be lost over the next decade.
The U.S. wasn’t always a laggard in meat production and innovation. In 1878, cattle dealer Gustavus Swift commissioned the design of a refrigerated railroad car. This invention allowed for butchered meat to be shipped without going bad, enabling efficiencies in both the slaughtering and transport of meat. This technological innovation marked a watershed moment in the democratization of meat. For the first time, Americans across the country purchased cheaper and more diverse cuts of fresh beef. Meanwhile, Chicago became a rail hub for major meatpackers and the heart of a beef Empire in the West. The meatpackers’ quick ascent was supported by a regulatory environment that prioritized cheap and sanitary beef. In the end, U.S. meatpackers leveraged their new position and government support, to become the world’s beef powerhouse.
Today, we are at a similarly pivotal moment in the production of protein. The global introduction of alternative protein (plant-based meat, fermentation derived ingredients, and cultivated meat – meat grown from animal cells in a controlled environment) may well be a moment in the meat industry’s history of equal or greater importance than the introduction of refrigerated railroad cars. Alternative protein has experienced rapid growth over the past decade with major food and agriculture companies entering the space with billions of dollars in investments. Multiple tailwinds, such as consumers’ concern for sustainability, nutrition, and animal welfare, suggest that alternative protein will grow from less than 1% of total meat volume today, to 5%-10% of the global meat market over the next decade (see estimates from Barclays, BCG, Bloomberg).
Unlike traditional animal protein, alternative protein production does not require large grassy plains or low-cost soy to support the animals. Instead, the main need for the protein companies of tomorrow is large-scale manufacturing infrastructure, such as fermentation and bioreactor farms (massive brewery-like factories). The infrastructure required for the production of alternative protein can be built anywhere.
Other countries have taken note. China is including these new types of protein in the roadmap for its future. Singapore, a country with minimal livestock production, became the first country in the world to approve the sale of cultivated meat, and is now considered an industry growth hub. Multiple startups now call Singapore home, owing to broad institutional support for the alternative protein industry by the government and state-backed investors. Qatar, another country with minimal historical livestock production, recently announced a deal with a U.S. company to commercialize cultivated-meat. One question now remains: will the U.S. capitalize on this new once-in-a-generation opportunity, or continue to lose jobs and market share to other countries?
Since the 19th century, the food system has become increasingly global. The shift from animal-based protein to alternative protein has the power to shift geographic centers of production and determine which corporations, new or old, command the trillion dollar fortunes attached to protein’s production. But the future is not predetermined. Where these major production centers develop and which companies will control the key infrastructure is still taking shape. Will the U.S. be a leader in this burgeoning space or go down the roads of solar energy and battery industries, which are now dominated by China. Alternative protein represents another critical inflection point for the U.S. to lead in a key industry of tomorrow.
About the authors:Yossi Quint is the Founder & CEO of Ark Biotech, which develops cultivated meat production systems. Previously, Yossi was an Engagement Manager at McKinsey & Company where he specialized in alternative protein. Blake Byrne is a graduate student in biotechnology at the University of Cambridge. Previously, he served as the lead Science & Technology analyst for the Good Food Institute, an alternative protein think tank.
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