In looking at Brick Meets Click/Mercatus online grocery sales data since March of this year, you might start to worry. After matching a record high of $9.3 billion in total U.S. grocery e-commerce in March, the numbers have steadily come down. April’s tally was $8.4 billion. May fell to $7.0 billion. And just this week, the latest data showed total U.S. online grocery sales dropped again to $6.8 billion.
But as Brick Meets Click Partner and Research Lead David Bishop explained to me by phone this week, there’s no need to panic.
“We’ve expected and predicted that 2021 would be a very choppy year,” Bishop said, adding the the pandemic, the subsequent delta and lambda variants and government relief like the child tax credits coming out will make for a very up and down year. But, he added, “Keep an eye on the big picture. We are still at significantly higher levels than prior to the pandemic.” More importantly, Bishop reassured me, online grocery shopping isn’t going anywhere. “We’re still at 70 percent of the peak, and we’re going to keep more than 50 percent of incremental gains.”
A closer look at Brick Meets Click’s numbers shows that almost the entirety of the drop in online grocery sales came from ship-to-home services (think mail order services like Imperfect Produce, Crowd Cow, etc.). Store delivery and home pickup options remained flat from May to June at $5.3 billion, and this, Bishop said, is where retailers should be paying attention — especially when it comes to curbside pickup.
Brick Meets Click’s June data showed that 33 percent of monthly active users received online grocery orders only via pickup, compared with 16 percent receiving their online groceries only via delivery. “The customer is signaling that pickup is the preferred method when given the option between home delivery and store pickup,” Bishop said.
Bishop also said that in the broader landscape, especially in the media, the message has been about delivery, and the need for faster delivery. (We at The Spoon are certainly guilty of adding to that narrative.) “The fact of the matter is that more households use pickup than delivery,” said Bishop, “And the sales gap is widening.”
Bishop doesn’t think retailers should abandon delivery, but more emphasis and resources should be put towards adding and improving curbside pickup options for customers. This in turn will create a virtuous cycle with customers. Adding more curbside pickup options with faster, more convenient pull-up options will get more people to use curbside pickup services.
Adding those pickup options, however isn’t as simple as a CEO snapping their fingers. Operational plans need to be put into place as to how the customer orders, who does the order packing, where that order is staged before pickup and who takes it out to the car. Additionally, larger chains need to order signage that directs people to pickup spots for all their store locations, and there may be city regulations that need to be met before traditional parking spots can be reserved for pickup. All that takes time.
Now that we have data around how consumer behavior is evolving with online grocery shopping, retailers can take action and adjust. Yes, there will be continued month-to-month fluctuations in the numbers, but the overall trend remains the same. “We’re trying to reinforce the underlying point, which is, we have had the acceleration [of grocery e-commerce] thanks to the pandemic,” Bishop said. “This is the year of reconciliation. Retailers and customers will re-jig how they operate and behave.” And The Spoon will be here to cover how stores and customers change with the times — so don’t worry.
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