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The Spoon

Daily news and analysis about the food tech revolution

full-service restaurants

NPD: QSRs Outpace Full-Service Restaurants in Terms of Transaction Improvements

The restaurant industry closed 2020 by “moving its way out of the steepest declines the industry has experienced since the Great Recession,” according to a new update from The NPD Group. 

Restaurant transactions in December 2020 were down 10 percent compared to the same period one year ago. However, that figure is a 27-point improvement from restaurant transactions in April 2020 — at the height of shelter-in-place mandates in the U.S. — when transactions were down 37 percent from the previous year.

NPD’s numbers suggest some much-needed improvement for the restaurant industry overall, after nearly a year of lockdowns, capacity restrictions, and consumer fears around eating out.

That improvement doesn’t look equal across all sectors in the restaurant biz, though. NPD notes in its recent report that full-service restaurants, which typically did not have much in the way of to-go strategies in place at the start of 2020, “bore the brunt of transaction declines throughout the pandemic.” In April, full-service transactions declined by -70 percent compared to a year ago; they improved to -30 percent in December.

Individual state restrictions also have something to do with the numbers around full-service restaurants. NPD noted that In more restrictive states, full service restaurant chain transactions are down 60 percent to 70 percent. In less restrictive states, “there isn’t as much of a gap between quick service and full service restaurants.” 

Most major QSRs were already better prepared to shift to off-premises operations when the pandemic struck in full force last year. Some, like Chipotle and Starbucks, had existing strategies in place around digital, drive-thru, and express store formats. Others, like McDonald’s, had the deep pockets and technical expertise to pivot quickly — a luxury most smaller chains and independent restaurants cannot afford.

According to NPD, major QSRs’ takeout, drive-thru, and delivery orders “soared” over the last several months, despite restrictions across the overall restaurant industry: “Quick service customer transaction declines bottomed out in April with a decline of -35% versus year ago, but quickly improved as shelter-at-home orders were lifted. In December, quick service restaurant chain customer transaction declines were down -8% versus last year.”

With things like speed of service, simpler menus, and more-efficient kitchens remaining top priorities for restaurants in 2021, improvements to the overall industry is likely to remain divided between the quick-service chains and their full-service counterparts for some time to come.

NPD: As QSR Transactions Improve, Full-Service Restaurants Continue to Struggle

Consumer transactions at restaurants have seen some improvement in the last couple weeks compared to the early days of the pandemic, though not much of it has gone beyond the quick-service restaurant.

NPD released new data today that notes consumer transactions at major U.S. restaurant chains declined 10 percent compared to one year ago for the week ending July 5. That’s a slight uptick from the previous week’s decline of 14 percent. 

However, NPD notes that “all of the improvement in the week sources to major quick service restaurant chains, where customer transaction declines improved by 4 points from the prior week’s decline of 13 percent versus year ago.”

That QSRs are seeing the bulk of the improvements shouldn’t surprise. The QSR format is inherently designed to better serve off-premises orders than full-service dine-in restaurants. Even before the pandemic and shelter-in-place mandates upset the entire industry, QSRs were accelerating their efforts to offer more pickup, delivery, and drive-thru capabilities. Starbucks, for example, has said 80 percent of its orders were already to-go before the pandemic. And a large portion of Chipotle’s business has for more than a year now been dedicated to building out off-premises-friendly store formats and developing a robust digital ordering strategy. 

Chipotle is a good illustration of how much more quickly and nimbly many QSRs were able to act in the wake of the pandemic compared full-service restaurants. Once social distancing measures went into effect, the chain simply accelerated its existing efforts around off-premises and digital ordering. The result was that Chipotle recorded its highest quarter ever for digital sales in Q1 2020. 

The last few months have been a much harder haul for full-service restaurants. NPD reported this week that full service restaurants saw customer transactions down -30 percent compared to one year ago, which is a five-point decline from the previous week. 

Author and NPD food industry advisor David Portalatin said that “full-service performance remains largely at the mercy of governmental regulation and the persistence of the coronavirus. For many full-serves, making the pivot to off-premise is far more difficult.”

As of right now, many would-be restaurant customers are still wary of actually sitting down in a dining room to eat a meal. The current spike on coronavirus cases across the U.S. also complicates matters, since some states have had to halt or roll back their reopening plans.

These challenges aren’t going to let up anytime soon, unfortunately. In all likelihood, nobody will be dining out en masse until a vaccine is found and widely administered. By then, consumer behaviors may have shifted to off-premises orders so heavily many people may not want to eat out, at least not on a regular basis. That will present a whole new bucket of challenges for restaurants and restaurant tech companies alike.