According to a new report just published by researcher Bricks Meets Click, U.S. online grocery sales are expected to hit $120 billion by 2028. The report forecasts that the e-grocery segment will grow at a 4.5% clip over the forecast period, three times the growth rate of the in-store grocery segment, which is forecasted to grow 1.3% during the same period.
Total eGrocery sales, which Bricks Meets Click defines as including Delivery, Pickup, and Ship-to-Home, are projected to account for 12.7% of total grocery sales in the U.S., up 170 basis point (bps) versus 2023. The researcher forecasts that online grocery, excluding Ship-to-Home (orders sent via common carriers like FedEx, a service that most grocers do not offer), will represent 10.7% of total grocery sales in five years.
“Two factors are creating significant headwinds that impact our eGrocery forecast,” said David Bishop, partner at Brick Meets Click. “First, the market is maturing. Nearly all of the people interested in online grocery shopping have used it at least once by now. Second, even though inflation has recently fallen faster than expected, its cumulative effect continues to drive a flight-to-value behavior in grocery shopping and that will slow topline sales growth.”
With increased competition in a slower-growing market, retailers are likely to concentrate on enhancing their first-party (1P) platforms to better control costs and improve the customer experience. This strategy aims to counteract the pressures from third-party (3P) platforms, which have traditionally dominated the market but tend to be more expensive for consumers.
According to Bricks Meets Click, pickup sales are expected to grow faster (5.4%) than delivery (4.4%) or Ship-to-Home (2.8%) through the forecast period, and pickup is expected to account for nearly 47% of all online grocery sales at the end of five years. This growth will be fueled by an increasing number of pickup options, particularly in suburban markets where delivery services currently dominate. This shift reflects a strategic expansion by retailers to cover more geographical areas and meet growing consumer demand for convenience.
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