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NPD: As QSR Transactions Improve, Full-Service Restaurants Continue to Struggle

by Jennifer Marston
July 13, 2020July 13, 2020Filed under:
  • Business of Food
  • Coronavirus
  • Delivery & Commerce
  • Featured
  • Restaurant Tech
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Consumer transactions at restaurants have seen some improvement in the last couple weeks compared to the early days of the pandemic, though not much of it has gone beyond the quick-service restaurant.

NPD released new data today that notes consumer transactions at major U.S. restaurant chains declined 10 percent compared to one year ago for the week ending July 5. That’s a slight uptick from the previous week’s decline of 14 percent. 

However, NPD notes that “all of the improvement in the week sources to major quick service restaurant chains, where customer transaction declines improved by 4 points from the prior week’s decline of 13 percent versus year ago.”

That QSRs are seeing the bulk of the improvements shouldn’t surprise. The QSR format is inherently designed to better serve off-premises orders than full-service dine-in restaurants. Even before the pandemic and shelter-in-place mandates upset the entire industry, QSRs were accelerating their efforts to offer more pickup, delivery, and drive-thru capabilities. Starbucks, for example, has said 80 percent of its orders were already to-go before the pandemic. And a large portion of Chipotle’s business has for more than a year now been dedicated to building out off-premises-friendly store formats and developing a robust digital ordering strategy. 

Chipotle is a good illustration of how much more quickly and nimbly many QSRs were able to act in the wake of the pandemic compared full-service restaurants. Once social distancing measures went into effect, the chain simply accelerated its existing efforts around off-premises and digital ordering. The result was that Chipotle recorded its highest quarter ever for digital sales in Q1 2020. 

The last few months have been a much harder haul for full-service restaurants. NPD reported this week that full service restaurants saw customer transactions down -30 percent compared to one year ago, which is a five-point decline from the previous week. 

Author and NPD food industry advisor David Portalatin said that “full-service performance remains largely at the mercy of governmental regulation and the persistence of the coronavirus. For many full-serves, making the pivot to off-premise is far more difficult.”

As of right now, many would-be restaurant customers are still wary of actually sitting down in a dining room to eat a meal. The current spike on coronavirus cases across the U.S. also complicates matters, since some states have had to halt or roll back their reopening plans.

These challenges aren’t going to let up anytime soon, unfortunately. In all likelihood, nobody will be dining out en masse until a vaccine is found and widely administered. By then, consumer behaviors may have shifted to off-premises orders so heavily many people may not want to eat out, at least not on a regular basis. That will present a whole new bucket of challenges for restaurants and restaurant tech companies alike.


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NPD: QSRs Outpace Full-Service Restaurants in Terms of Transaction Improvements

The restaurant industry closed 2020 by “moving its way out of the steepest declines the industry has experienced since the Great Recession,” according to a new update from The NPD Group.  Restaurant transactions in December 2020 were down 10 percent compared to the same period one year ago. However, that…

NPD: Restaurant Chain Transactions Down From Last Year, Digital Orders Up

New data from NPD Group is a real good news/bad news situation for restaurants. The bad news: for the week ending May 24, total major restaurant chain transactions declined 18 percent compared to the same time period last year. The good news? That's up 25 percentage points from the biggest…

Report: Restaurant Transactions are Inching Towards Improvement for Major Chains

Restaurant transactions are improving — for some. Today, the NPD Group said customer transactions at major U.S. restaurant chains saw a slight uptick for the week ending May 31. Transactions at these chains declined by 18 percent compared to the same period one year ago. That’s a 3 percent week-over-week…

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Tagged:
  • Chipotle
  • full-service restaurants
  • off-premises ordering
  • qsrs
  • Starbucks

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