Those with an eye on restaurant tech may remember that this time a year ago, Euromonitor predicted that the ghost kitchen market would be worth $1 trillion by 2030.
That’s an enormous number to pin on what was then still quite a nascent sector. But Michael Schaefer, the Euromonitor analyst who made that prediction, wasn’t just talking about ghost kitchens for restaurants. He was talking about ghost kitchens that house ready-made meals and pantry/fridge staples, deliver groceries, and service other parts of the food sector in addition to restaurants. Turns out, he was right. Those lines between grocery, restaurant, ghost kitchen, and convenient store are fading as we speak, as much recent Spoon coverage can attest.
Michael is the Head of Beverages and Foodservice Research at Euromonitor International, tracking consumer trends, product innovations, and market evolution across the F&B industries. Needless to say, he’s hyper tuned into the state of the restaurant industry in 2021. Along with food tech investor Brita Rosenheim, he’ll help open The Spoon’s upcoming Restaurant Tech Summit, a day-log virtual event that will discuss the state, present and future, of restaurant tech.
As a teaser, we recently got some high-level thoughts from Michael about where the industry is headed. Full Q&A is below. And if you haven’t already, grab a ticket to the show here.
This interview has been lightly edited for clarity.
The Spoon: What is the biggest change in terms of the restaurant industry’s approach towards technology as a result of the pandemic?
Michael Schaefer: There’s certainly a greater willingness to experiment in the restaurant industry. Some technologies, which were adopted out of necessity — such as QR codes for ordering — offer long-term benefits without compromising the guest experience. This will drive further experiments, particularly with technologies that can offer labor savings.
What do you think the restaurant industry’s biggest challenge is right now?
Labor is without question the restaurant industry’s biggest challenge in the short term. Restaurant work is difficult, demanding, sometimes dangerous and often pays minimum wage. The pandemic exacerbated these issues while extended unemployment insurance has given workers time to consider their options. This shifting cost-benefit analysis will create ongoing staffing issues. More restaurants will need to consider investing in technology that creates labor savings and makes the average worker’s job less strenuous.
What is the biggest challenge for restaurants right now when it comes to digitization?
Integration is the biggest challenge for restaurants when it comes to digitization, particularly among independent outlets. There are more options than ever in terms of systems and approaches to technology. This creates challenges in terms of finding the right solution and ensuring that disparate software and equipment setups can work together in a high-stress restaurant environment.
What are you most excited about when it comes to the impact of restaurant technology?
I am most excited to start seeing a range of new models that will reshape what traditional restaurants look like. A restaurant starting from scratch in 2022 will likely take a very different approach to staffing, tech, integration with third-party delivery and loyalty, among other strategies, than a ten-year-old business might.
What do you think the restaurant industry will look like in five years? In the next five years, restaurants will become less synonymous with prepared food. Prepared meals will remain the primary business for restaurants, of course, and dining in restaurants will not be going away. However, the range of operators, concepts and venues for obtaining prepared meals and solving for daily meal occasions will continue to expand. Rather than a strict separation of restaurants and prepared meals on one end and grocers and packaged food and drinks on the other, we’ll see more of a spectrum, with a range of different approaches to prepared food and drinks, generally ordered via an app and often fulfilled by third-party delivery.
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